I started writing this post in early November but didn't finish it until the end of December. It seems this has not been the year of blog writing for me. It appears I haven't written anything since January. Is that sad? Or is it okay? Should I feel guilty? Or should I recognise I've been preoccupied with life, family, PhD and just generally trying to make my life as good as I can make it?
But I haven't been idle. My PhD is progressing. I'm developing a 'conversations about the future' framework to centre my work on people not process. This is based on my integration of integral and foresight which has also structured the design of this website. It all remains a work in progress and that's okay.
I think predictions can be of value when they use a short term timeframe - such as elections which this article uses as example. And the concept of Transfer Learning is a good one because it reminds us to move beyond our ingrained, habitutated thinking modes and seek information and data in new places. The aim is to expand our understanding of the issue rather than closing down out thinking to what we know already. Looking for both confirming and disconfirming evidence is how we strengthen our thinking about the future, whether that is by trying to predict the future (not recommended) or anticipating the future by learning to think in multiples and possibilities.
Another article popped up in my scanning this morning about how technology is making us dumb. It's an interesting article with some scientific information to justify the argument. It is however, talking about how we use social media rather than technology per se.
Note: how we use social media, how we use technology - not what technology is doing to us. There's a difference. The first infers choice, the second infers being no choice just impact.
I talk to many people about the value of strategic foresight - what it is, why it matters and how to use it in practice. Some people immediately 'get it', others don't and don't want to, and others ask me questions like 'what other companies use this approach?' or 'can you provide some case studies?' Readers will know that I have just a tiny aversion to providing case studies because the best way to know if foresight approaches will work for you is to use them
The conversation about strategy has been changing lately. Conventional strategic planning has passed its use by date. We are moving from its formulaic and top down approach to strategy development where glossy plans are produced but little changes in how things are done to a new way of developing strategy, where everyone in the organisation can be involved and where the process is designed for the needs of each organisation.