Using Futures Approaches

So, how do you actually go about implementing a futures approach in your university or organisation?

There needs to be overt recognition in the organisation that systematically considering the future as part of strategy development will be a valuable tool.  Without this recognition, you won’t be able to integate futures work into ‘routine’ planning processes, which means that it will always be dependent on individual champions rather than just part of the ‘way we do things around here’.  This means that the CEO will need to be convinced of the value of futures work, and this is your first job if you are trying to implement a organisation-wide futures program.

How do you convince a CEO of the value of futures approaches?  That depends on the individual – some just won’t be interested; others will be willing to give it a go.  If you can’t get approval for a organisation-wide approach, then seek out ‘friendly’ units that you can work with to build futures credibility in the organisation.

In any circumstances, as discussed in the Rethinking Strategic Planning page, the first step is to recognise that there is a separate strategic thinking phase - which is the organisational home of futures approaches – that requires its own methods.  The Generic Foresight Process which provides the broad framework for implementing a futures approach, is your starting point for deciding which methods to use at which stage of a futures exercise.

In brief, you need to:

• make an overt commitment to use futures approaches that is agreed by the executive of the university; it may be useful to take them through a process to introduce them to the approach and the benefits, and to determine how it can be used,
• develop an enviromental scanning function (input method) that suits your university or organisation, using a broad framework from within which to choose your sources,
• choose analytic methods to help you filter the information you gather in your environmental scanning, and determine how you are going to present the scanning outputs,
• build in time for your key strategy folks to come together on a regular basis to consider the scanning outputs, and to interpret them for your particular context – sometimes, this will be a discussion, at other times, you may need to run a workshop using methods such as Causal Layered Analysis (interpretive method) to try and work out what the scanning information really means for your university or organisation,
• use the information on trends and drivers of change you have identified as important for your information in a prospective workshop or process (eg scenario planning) to explore how those trends and drivers might play out over time,
• consider the implications of your prospective stage for your strategy today by asking questions such as:
  • if the events in the scenarios actually occurred, what strategic response would the university make?
  • are the university’s current strategies the best ‘fit’ for its future operating environment?
  • what strategy can be decide today that would be robust enough to deal with any scenario eventuating?

The next phase of the strategy process is decision making which is generally the realm of the CEO who make the ultimate decisions about which options are going to be pursued by your organisation.  Then, those options are documented and implemented in the strategic planning process.

When you are designing a futures process or ‘intervention’, consider using an integral futures approach.  This means that not only do you consider what methods you are going to use, but you also pay attention to:

• your worldview and approach to the process:  what do you bring to the process, what do you hope to gain from it?
• existing organisational processes and structures:  how do things get done here, how do people work together?
• organisational culture and norms: what are the unwritten rules here, who needs to be involved across the organisation to ensure success?
• information: what information about the external environment and how the organisation ‘fits’ into that environment do I need?

In this way, you will be contextualising your process for the organisation, while acknowledging your role in that process.

Challenging the Status Quo

One of the hidden obstacles in developing a foresight capacity, or even using a single futures method, is that you will be challenging the status quo. You are likely to run up against the deeply held assumptions of individuals, and organisational politics, either individually or in tandem.  There will always be reasons for NOT using futures approaches, and it is difficult to articulate why we SHOULD use futures approaches in ways that will get people’s attention and triumph over organisational egos!

If you get a response such as “that’s rubbish” or “that won’t happen”, then you are smacking up against some assumption walls and some blindspots.  If you get a response such as “we don’t have the time to do this” or as onedeputy vice-chancellor was fond of saying when he didn’t agree with something, ”I’m not sure I understand what you are getting at”, you are probably running up against organisational politics.  You need to be aware of both when developing a futures approach.

Andy Hines, however, writes that while “futures work is really all about challenging worldviews or epistemologies … the number of organizations, particularly corporations, intellectually ready for this is very, very small.”  His point is that the focus of futures work should be on influencing long term strategic decision making, and to pretend otherwise might make futurists irrelevant.

But, influencing long term strategic decision making also involves understanding the degree to which the CEO has an open mind, and is willing to explore what value a strategic foresight capacity might have.  The reality is that there is not much point having a great process and methods if the CEO is not interested.

You may still be able to move into stealth mode, and attempt to do futures work ‘under the radar’.  Environmental scanning is a good method in these circumstances, since it can initially be tailored to suit the data-driven decision makers, and then expanded over time as credibility in the scanning output builds.  Working under the radar is not ideal, but as Hines writes: “what we need is different kinds of futures for different kinds of contexts, and that there isn’t one right approach to doing futures work”.

For more information, you can download the Using Futures Approaches: A Guide to Getting Started guide, which is available for free, and which gives you the fundamentals you need to start using futures approaches.