A Foresight Primer

This section provides some fundamental information about futures and foresight work. If you are new to futures work, this is a good place to start.

First, a couple of definitions. Foresight is the capacity to think systematically about the future to inform today’s decision making. It is a capacity that we need to develop as individuals, as organisations, and as a society.  ’Futures’ refers both to the research, methods and tools that are available for us to use to develop a foresight capacity, and to the field in which futurists work.

A Foresight Primer

Joseph Voros from Swinburne University of Technology has written A Primer on Futures Studies, Foresight and the Use of Scenarios.  Published in 2001 in an internal Swinburne foresight publication called prospect, the primer provides an excellent overview of futures studies as a field, and introduces readers to main futures concepts:

• the three ‘laws’ of futures,
• types of potential futures,
• levels of depth in futures thinking,
• approaches to implementing futures, and
• the generic foresight process.

The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies

A comprehensive resource about futures studies is the Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, produced by and available on CD from Foresight International.  The 2005 version of the Knowledge Base has five volumes:

·  Volume 1: FOUNDATIONS

·  Volume 2: ORGANISATIONS AND PRACTICES

·  Volume 3: DIRECTIONS AND OUTLOOKS

·  Volume 4: THE VIEWS OF FUTURISTS

·  Volume 5: SYNERGIES, CASE STUDIES AND IMPLEMENTATION

Why a Futures Knowledge Base?

The words of Richard Slaughter, the editor of the Knowledge Base, describes the rationale:

“In the postmodern world all fields of enquiry must recognise how paradigms, worldviews and socially constructed ways of knowing affect their core understandings, methods and outlooks. Some futurists have argued that this brings other fields closer to FS, rather than vice versa. Thus, instead of seeking inclusion in a dated map of knowledge, FS reflects some of the wider shifts that have taken place in the sciences and humanities. Core elements of the field that are widely understood and applied can be defined and regarded as a knowledge base. At a minimum these core elements include the following:

• futures concepts and metaphors;
• futures literature;
• futures organisations;
• futures methods and tools;
• images and imaging processes; and
• social innovations.

Futures studies is not static. It will continue to evolve as its assumptions and practices are explored, challenged and reformulated. This series provides an authoritative overview and a valuable starting point for those who are already active in the field, those who would like to be and those who simply wish to apply it in their own fields. However, the series does more than provide an introduction to futures thinking: it also embraces a variety of viewpoints from different cultures and across various disciplines. This is the first truly global overview of the state of futures studies. As such, it is a gift from the twentieth century to the twenty-first, and to all future generations” (Series Introduction, Knowledge Base of Futures Studies).”