FAQ

Because all your decisions today are about the future. The future is going to be nothing like the past and the way we operate and do business today will not be useful in the future. Thinking systematically about the future and what might happen today allows you to move beyond basing your strategic decisions on information from the past and the present to make decisions that are futures ready.

Simply, the risk of failed strategy. And the knowledge that you have wasted a lost of time, money and energy creating short-term goals that didn’t stand up to the test of the future. And, you will have to start all over again – after you have spent time in crisis management mode because you failed to see what was coming.

No. Experts on strategy, such as Henry Mintzberg have characterised the essential difference between strategic planning (using SWOTs) and strategic thinking (using foresight). Mintzberg argues that strategic planning is about analysis – the breaking down of a goal into steps, designing how the steps may be implemented, and estimating the anticipated consequences of each step.

Strategic thinking, on the other hand, is about synthesis – using intuition, creativity and foresight to formulate an integrated perspective or vision of where an organisation should be heading. In other words, strategic thinking is concerned with the setting of the goal itself, not the steps needed to bring it about, which is the realm of strategic planning. The confusion lies in the belief that analysis encompasses synthesis – that strategic planning, strategic thinking and strategy-making are all the same thing.

This belief itself rests upon the further assumption that prediction is possible, and that the strategy-making process can be formalised. Predicting seasons is possible, for example, but most things in an organisation’s environment are beyond prediction, so strategic processes based upon prediction and single-line projections may be dangerously inadequate.

Foresight is designed to open up an expanded range of perceptions of the strategic options available, so that strategy-making is potentially wiser. Once strategy has been set, then the formal procedures of strategic planning are needed to keep everything on track. Foresight is an aspect of strategic thinking, which informs strategy-making, which informs strategic planning and action. (Answer courtesy of Joseph Voros, Swinburne University of Technology , 2002.)

This site contains much information about futures work and methods. Check out the Resources page as a starting point. You can do your own research – check out journals like Foresight, Journal of Futures Studies and Futures Research Quarterly. Have a look at the Masters in Management (Strategic Foresight) program offered by Swinburne University of Technology. And, think about joining the Shaping Tomorrow Foresight Network (http://shapingtomorrowmain.ning.com) – you will be in a conversation with many of the world’s leading futurists and foresight practitioners.

Yes, I am very happy to share. I’d appreciate an acknowledgement (eg Maree Conway, Thinking Futures) if you use anything in a public presentation, and would love if if you let me know you were going to use the material. Some information is copyright to the authors and is specified as such, so that should be respected.

Click on the Contact link at the bottom of the site, and send me your question. I will get back to you within 24 hours.